Dynasty League Round Table Q & A

Bernard

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Shockingly, there are a lot of you out there who actually read my posts and have been asking me some interesting questions surrounding fantasy football this season.  I thought a lot of the questions were interesting and want to get back to all of you in a general format since I think there are other readers out there who may have the same questions.  And from there I took it up a notch and asked some fellow dynasty football experts to give their answers to each of the questions.

Justin McQuaid and Aaron Kozick are dynasty football veterans and were very excited to give their answers. Keep the questions coming and we will keep the answers coming.  Take some time to see what each of us had to say to each of the following questions.

Question 1

‘There seems to be some debate about who the 1st pick should be in dynasty leagues.  I’m leaning towards Giovanni Bernard. Is that the right pick?”- Jared, Philly

McQuaid- There is no surefire #1 this year.  However, before, during and after the draft, Bernard’s name has been thrown out as a potential #1 pick in fantasy rookie drafts.  He is the only rookie to have that going for him.  This year’s draft is a “fill your needs” draft.  If you need a RB, Bernard’s your guy (particularly in a PPR league).  Based on Cincy’s depth chart, long-term, the backfield will belong to Bernard.  He’s an explosive potential 3-down back who can catch the ball very effectively out of the backfield.  Bottom line, if you want to play it safe, take Bernard and no one will blame you.  But, if you have the #1 pick and you acquired it by a trade and you are in a position to select the BPA, take Tavon Austin or Cordarelle Patterson (someone with elite potential that can WOW you beginning this September).  I believe Austin and Patterson are gambles, but the only home run hitters in the draft.

Kozick- In fantasy football, the hardest position to fill is the RB position. There are less RB’s that get 20-25 touches per game each year and an increasing amount of teams using RB by committee approach. If you have the chance to land a guy who can be a full-time RB, you have to take him. In this draft there are a few that come to mind but none more talented than Bernard. He has limited competition to be the guy in Cincy and Defenses are already focused on the passing attack and AJ Green which means there should be plenty of room to run.

Capriotti-  What a tough year to have the first overall pick.  There certainly is no clear-cut #1 pick, but a group of players that are being considered for that 1st pick.  Personally, I think that Gio Bernard is the best choice for the first overall pick.  He will probably start the seasons sharing touches with Green-Ellis, but I would say by week 8 or 9 he will be getting the majority of the touches.  He will most likely be a low #2 RB for the 2013 season, but a ceiling of becoming a low #1 RB and beyond is probable.

Question 2

“For IDP leagues, who and where should, the first defensive player be drafted?  I’m thinking of taking Arthur Brown at the 13th pick.”- Alex, Aston, PA

McQuaid- Do not be the guy to pick a defensive player first.  I always hate that guy.  I value defense, trust me.  But with this draft in particular, the value in the 2nd round is tremendous.  The 13th pick this year (in 10 or 12 man leagues) is an extension of the 1st round.  Look for Lattimore, Woods, Eiffert, Allen, Hunter or Stacy… a couple of those guys should be available at 13 and have a much higher ceiling than Arthur Brown (remember Rolando McClain when making your decision).  The first defensive player should not be considered until pick #22 in your draft.  That’s right, #22.

Kozick- Experts will tell you this defensive class has no rock stars in it compared to last year but there is a lot of value and there are some nice players to select from.  Any time a defensive guy goes in the top 10 of the actual NFL draft will warrant a lot of attention.  Dion Jordan although a reach at #3 for Miami should be able to get to the QB, but Arthur Brown is the safer pick.  He fell into a great situation in Baltimore and should produce plenty of tackles. The scoring format will determine where to select a defensive player but unless the league is set up favorably for defensive stats I think the first defensive guy will go in the 12-18 range of dynasty drafts. Deeper teams may go early on defense but it’s at this spot where the obvious break out candidates on offense start to thin out.

Capriotti- At 13, I think that is a bit high for Arthur Brown.  He is still not 100% healthy and there could be some nice value available up until the 15th pick.  I do agree that Arthur Brown should be the first defensive player taken, but I wouldn’t take him any higher that 16th overall unless you are desperate for  LB and the defensive scoring in your league is dramatic.
Question 3

“Who is a second year player that you think will take a big jump in 2013?” Eric- Medford Lakes, NJ

McQuaid- Without a doubt, Trent Richardson.  He’s apparently healthy and, I hate to say it, the Browns look like a functional organization for the first time ever.    I feel by the end of the year, T-Rich takes the RB reigns in fantasy and does not let go for 6-7 more years.  If you can get him on your squad, do it now.

Kozick- The 2012 draft class was loaded with talent.  Every position seemed to produce at least a few future studs that will be fantasy monsters for years to come.  In terms of breakout candidate, you have to look at guys who showed flashes of promise but for whatever reason did not get the greatest opportunity to shine last year.  The most obvious case to me is David Wilson, RB NY Giants.  This guy was the real deal in college at Virginia Tech and has crazy speed.  He can catch the ball out of the backfield and is a highlight reel waiting to happen.  The Giants parted ways with Ahmad Bradshaw this offseason and given the talent at RB on the Giants roster, it is Wilson’s job to lose.

Capriotti-  I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Josh Gordon is going to take a big leap in 2o13.  His 50 catch, 805 yard rookie season was very impressive and with a full off-season to work out I expect big things.  If you were a disciplined enough owner to hold onto Gordon, then you will reap the benefits this season.  Put him on the bench to start the season, but don’t be surprised if he is starting for you on a weekly basis.  I can’t wait to see what this kid can do.
Question 4

“Who is the most overrated rookie in this draft?  I think there are a lot of overhyped players.”- John, Claymont, DE

McQuaid-  I’m going to go with Le’Veon Bell…He’s going to go high in most rookie drafts because of opportunity.  He’s got a clear path to an RB1 spot that is not a timeshare.  I get it.  I just value drafting for guys with more talent than a good opportunity.  I think this kid has Daniel Thomas written all over him.  Guys I’d rather have: Johnathan Franklin, Zac Stacy.  Someone is going to get carried away with the opportunity that Bell has and will eventually get blindsided by his lack of production.

Kozick- When it comes to overrated players, you have to look at hyped up names that everyone knows about.  To me that is Eddie Lacy, RB Packers.  Not to downplay the offense year he had at Alabama last year but this is a big guy who loves contact and it is rare to find a guy that can successfully carry that style of play into the NFL.  He was everyone’s favorite pick to be the first RB taken in most mock drafts and yet NFL teams passed on him time and time again.  If he truly is as good as people are projecting then why would Green Bay spend a draft pick just one round later on Jonathan Franklin who has better hands, better high-end speed, and just as decorated resume from a statistical standpoint last year.  Lacy had a beast of a line in college and although Green Bay has a future hall of fame QB in Aaron Rodgers I just do not see Lacy living up to the hype.  He will find a role in the NFL, just not sure he will be an awesome fantasy RB given where most people will be drafting him.

Lattimore

Capriotti-  When I think of the word, overrated, I tie that with the Average Draft Position (ADP) of a player.  I think they are one-in-the-same.  That player to me this season in Marcus Lattimore.  That doesn’t mean I think this guy is going to stink and never amount to anything, but the fact that he is being drafted on average at the 14th spot overall is simply over drafting him.  With 2 torn ACLs and a bevy of RBs in front of him, there are better options at the 14th pick.  When I see guys like Keenan Allen and Robert Woods being passed on in favor of Lattimore, I just shake my head.  The risk is too great for Latti to pass on those guys.

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