Guys Who May Not Meet Expectations

Here are 5 guys that I think will be drafted pretty high in drafts this summer, but will ultimately not meet up to our expectations.  This is not to say they will have a bad year or that you should totally avoid them, I’m just simply talking about how well they will perform compared to where they get drafted.

Adrian Peterson

He simply is not going to repeat from last season.  He’ll finish the season as a #1 RB for every team he ends up on, but being drafted 1st overall won’t reap the rewards that owners will be looking expecting.  I expect him to approach 1,500 yards rushing which is great for any RB, but expectations for APETE will be unfairly higher.  If you have the #1 pick, it will be hard for you to pass on APETE, but I’d advise you to move onto a different player. Doug Martin maybe?

Colin Kaepernick

Colin Kaepernick

Every owner ha s a borderline #1 QB that they think will explode in any given year.  This year I think the majority of owners are going to be taking Kaepernick later in the draft HOPING he will be a total monster on the field.  I see that blowing up in everyone’s face.  I think he is in-line for a sophomore slump due to the loss of Michael Crabtree and the increasing chances that he will get hurt on one of these scrambles that can be very electrifying.  QBs who scramble are alluring to fantasy owners due to the rapid points that can be gained, but I tend to stay away from these guys as their potential to get hurt increases with each scramble.  I’ll stick with the pocket QBs this upcoming draft.

Roddy White

This is the year of the changing of the guard.  The last 2 years everyone was expecting Julio Jones to be the #1 WR and for Roddy White to take on a lesser role.  The guesses were a bit premature, but going into his 3rd season, Julio Jones is about to take it to another level.  Roddy White will still be a fine WR to own, but Julio should be drafted ahead of Roddy in every draft.  Roddy will still be around for at least 2-3 more years as he is only 31, but Roddy is no longer the #1 WR.

Alfred Morris

An indirect result of RG3 getting hurt the way he did last year means less running for the QB.  Now that other teams know this the read-option won’t be as effective for Morris as it had been last year.  Those big DE’s won’t have to hold the edge as long because the likelihood of RG3 keeping the ball and running is going to drop.  When that drops, the DE can key in on Morris and hit him in the backfield, something that didn’t happen much in 2012. Why didn’t that happen? Cause DE’s had to respect RG3’s legs.

L’Veon Bell

A rookie starting RB in Pittsburgh with no real competition usually gets the hype machine going nicely.  10 years ago when the Steelers were a ground and pound offense that leaned on the defense to win games, a RB in this situation would seemed destined to have a great rookie year with high expectations.  Unfortunately for Bell, this in 2013 and the Steelers no longer have a great defense and their offensive coordinator is far from a ground and pound type player-caller.  Bell will be drafted by many teams to be the #3 RB with potential to come off the bunch mid-year when he starts blowing up.  It’s not going to happen.  The NFL is much faster than what Bell saw in the Big Ten.  He will develop into a good starting RB someday, but it won’t be in 2013.

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