If you do your homework, you will be able to identify some good and even elite players ahead of time that will be falling in drafts for some reason or another. Injuries and past performance are the main reasons, but remember that past performance is not indicative of future results. GET THAT VALUE!
Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay
ADP 59 (And falling rapidly)
Since news broke on August 6th that Jordy Nelson was going to be out 4-6 weeks due to knee surgery, his average draft position (ADP) has drop 7 spots in 7 days. Before this weekend is over it will drop close 10 spots and by the end of training camp it could be close to a 2 round drop. In other words he is dropping faster than Anthony Wiener’s approval rating. That right there is great value. Sure he might miss the first week or two, but to get a WR who scored 22 TDs in the last 28 games is unheard of. If you are an owner looking to wait on WRs until the mid rounds, Jordy Nelson is a guy you should circle. Put him on your bench for the first week or two and then slip him in as your #2 WR or flex player.
On the surface, I understand why Larry is the 7th wide receiver taken on average. The other 6 WRs ahead of him are monsters in the passing game and his numbers over the past 3 seasons don’t exactly indicate a can’t miss player. But we have to remember that the landscape has drastically changed over the past 6 months. New coach Bruce Arians is a mastermind in the passing game and Fitz will be working with the best QB he has had since Kurt Warner. With Carson Palmer under center, Fitz should seem a lot more passes down the field. If Carson can throw for 4,000 yards with players like Denarius Moore and Brandon Myers, I’m sure he can get Larry back to 90/1,200/7. There is no excuse why Demarco Murray, who has missed close to 30% of miss games in his first 2 years, should be going ahead of Larry this summer in redraft leagues. If he is there in the late 2nd round, jump all over him. Also, while writing this post Murray pulled a hamstring and broke his big toe. I like jokes.
Robert Griffin III
I get it. He is coming off of a serious knee injury and owners are scared to draft him because of this, but owners need to start reading between the lines. If RG3 wasn’t physically ready to practice, they would have kept him on the PUP list. When they took him off that list it was all I needed to know about the injury and the outlook of his season. No he won’t be involved in as many called running plays like he did in 2012, but he will scramble for yards from time to time. When RG3 is the 9th QB taken on average after finishing in the top 5 in scoring amongst QBs in 2012 I start seeing value and you should too. Don’t be scared. If you are get a dog…or a solid #2 QB. He will have another elite season, but hedge your bets if you want. Romo and Manning are solid #2 QBs who will be available in later rounds. Just get your hands on RG3 if you see him on the board in the 5th round.